Trump's shooting: Has it made Biden's nomination certain?

The rebellion against President Biden that was brewing among some Democrats since the president’s debate performance has vanished from the headlines, and some are speculating that it may be over for good.

Just a few days ago, Biden’s hold on the nomination seemed seriously in doubt. A series of brutal reports — on his plummeting fundraising, on some of his own aides losing confidence in him, and on top party figures privately seeming open to his ouster — buffeted him last Wednesday and Thursday. Anonymous sources told reporters that dozens more House Democrats would soon publicly call for him to step aside.

But after Biden gave a press conference Thursday evening in which he answered reporters’ questions for nearly an hour, the promised flood of defections didn’t materialize; it was more like a trickle. His competent performance there seemed to freeze things in place, leaving Democrats at an impasse going into the weekend.

Then, Saturday evening, a shooting at Trump’s rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, left one rallygoer dead and injured Trump. And it had a few consequences for Biden.

First, it changed the subject. The media had been obsessed with Biden and the 81-year-old president’s age since the June 27 presidential debate; it was by far the biggest news story in the country. The nonstop coverage put a lot of pressure on Biden and on Democrats, but now, Trump’s shooting has knocked Biden’s fate out of the headlines.

Second, it’s generally helpful for a president in crisis to do things that are “presidential”: to demonstrate gravitas and the prestige of the office and to seem bigger than the petty politics of the moment. So after Trump’s shooting, Biden took an above-the-fray tone, calling for national unity. Plus, the weekend’s violence may raise one implication: Things are chaotic in the country right now. Do Democrats really want to add to the chaos by effectively toppling their president?

Third and most controversial, some Democrats’ instinctive reaction to Trump’s shooting has been to assume that he’ll now win the presidency and to conclude, therefore, that a messy and difficult push to replace Biden isn’t worthwhile, since Biden’s replacement would also likely lose. “We’ve all resigned ourselves to a second Trump presidency,” a senior House Democrat told Axios on Sunday in an already-infamous quote.

That chain of logic is pretty obviously flawed. It’s far too early to write off an election that is months away, so this may be mainly a justification for inertia and inaction that key Democrats already were inclined toward. But the upshot is clear: It helps Biden hang on.

The Democratic National Convention is just over a month away, so Biden only needs to hold on till then. He could even lock things down sooner if the DNC chooses to ask delegates to make his nomination official early in a virtual roll call, a proposal they are currently mulling.

So, Biden’s chances of being renominated do suddenly look better.

It’s no sure thing yet, though: He’ll still have to make it through the next few weeks without any other episodes that raise concerns about his age and health. Plus, more Democrats could simply choose to revive the rebellion.

The tumultuous past few weeks of American politics should remind us that unexpected events lie ahead and that nothing is certain until it happens.